Moyiga Nduru

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 27 2007 (IPS) – This year s rainy season has brought some mixed blessings to farmers and aid agencies operating in Southern Africa, which experienced a spell of drought and famine last year.
In most of the 14-member Southern African Development Community (SADC), the rainfall on which most farmers rely unable to afford irrigation starts in November and ends in March.

We had a poor start to the season. But since late December we have experienced some good rainfall. This doesn t mean that all is well. The southern and eastern parts of the country are not having good rainfall, Ajah Vashee, president of the Trustee of Zambia National Farmers Union, told IPS from the central town of Ndola by phone.

Some farmers, because rains started late, have had to replant their crops. This means extra cost for them, he said. We hope that the weather holds up between now and mid-February.

Despite the uncertainty, we are optimistic that we will have reasonable good production this year in Zambia, Vashee said.

In its seasonal outlook update for December-February 2007, the Zimbabwe-based SADC Drought Monitoring Centre says it expects above-normal rainfall in the greater part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It expects similar rainfall in northern Angola, most of Zambia, the southern half Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique, most of Zimbabwe, the eastern half Swaziland and extreme eastern South Africa.
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Aid agencies are still waiting for the rainy season to pick up or slow down so as to determine the number of people likely to require food aid this year.

Currently we feed 4.3 million vulnerable people and school children through food provision, Mike Huggins, a spokesman for the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in South Africa s commercial capital of Johannesburg, told IPS by phone.

There are vulnerable people, such as those living with HIV, and AIDS orphans that always require food aid in the region, he said.

Early last year, aid agencies were feeding 10.3 million people across the region prone to floods and drought. This figure has fallen to 4.3 million because of the good harvest last agricultural season, Huggins said. It s too early, however, to speculate on this year s food demands.

One of the countries experiencing acute food shortages, Zimbabwe, with a population of 13 million, used to be the grain basket of the region. But production fell after President Robert Mugabe seized land from 4,500 white commercial farmers to resettle landless blacks between 2000 and 2002.

White commercial farmers used to produce the bulk of Zimbabwe s food. Now the country is reeling under a runaway inflation rate of more than 1,000 percent, and has become a net food importer. Last week it imported 3,351 tonnes of wheat from South Africa, according to the South African Grain Information Service.

Apart from South Africa, Namibia, Mauritius and Botswana, farmers in the region face difficulties in obtaining bank loans. Banks require collateral, something which poor farmers usually cannot provide.

The biggest problem most farmers have is the inability to borrow money and produce food, Vashee said. The other problem is the functioning of the maize marketing.

Maize is the staple food in much of the SADC region. Sometimes you have the crops, but you can t sell them, he said.

Last year the Zambian government bought the maize surplus but didn t have sufficient money to back up the deal. As a result, they are still paying the farmers, Vashee said.

Relatively wealthy Namibia, too, is feeling the pinch. WFP is facing a shortfall of four million dollars for its operations in Namibia through to April, and needs a total of nine million dollars through to the end of 2007, the UN food agency said in a statement. The agency is looking after 90,000 orphans and vulnerable children in Namibia.

Across the region, excluding Namibia, WFP faces a funding shortfall of 48 million dollars for programmes in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe which assist about 4.5 million people, the WFP added.

More rainfall is needed if the SADC region is to overcome food shortages and look after its vulnerable people, many of whom are living with HIV/AIDS and are too weak to farm.

There are no clear signs of declining HIV prevalence elsewhere in southern Africa including in Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland. In Swaziland, national adult HIV prevalence is estimated at 33.4 percent. Botswana s epidemic is equally serious, with national adult HIV prevalence estimated at 24.1 percent in 2005. Lesotho s epidemic seems to be relatively stable at very high levels, with an estimated national adult HIV prevalence of 23.2 percent, said the 2006 UN Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) report.

On the eastern coastline, a dynamic epidemic is underway in Mozambique, where the estimated national adult HIV prevalence is 16.1 percent. HIV is spreading fastest in provinces linked by major transport routes to Malawi, South Africa and Zimbabwe, according to UNAIDS.